The rumors aren’t true. Housing market crash unlikely despite war, high rates

A U.S. housing market crash remains extremely unlikely in 2026 even as the war in Iran strains buyer psychology, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead economic analyst for HousingWire.

The conflict with Iran has sent mortgage rates higher over the last five weeks, from a low of 5.99% to a high of 6.64%.

Weekly pending home sales last week reached 70,676, down from 72,191 during the same week in 2025 — and a six-week streak of year-over-year growth ended with a small decline.

“The interesting aspect is, with all these crazy headlines, it’s been the best housing demand in multiple years in terms of purchase application data and weekly pending sales,” Mohtashami said Tuesday. “Part of that is just mortgage rates are starting with the lowest rate curve post-2022.”

Purchase application data showed year-over-year growth slow from 5% to 1% last week with a week-to-week decline of 3%.

Every week in 2026 has shown positive year-over-year growth, but that trend has slowed for the last two weeks.

The missing crash ingredient

Mohtashami cited that nominal home price declines nationally are historically rare.

Excluding the 2007-2011 period, the U.S. has never had a year where home prices fell even 1% nationally.

The key missing ingredient in 2026 is distressed sellers, Mohtashami said.

During the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for multiple years — roughly four to six times higher than modern totals.

“We don’t have any history in U.S. economics, going back 84 years, to show that nominal home prices crash with sellers not stressed,” Mohtashami said. “A lot of times, if they’re not getting the price they want, they take their homes off the market.”

Even if mortgage rates cross 7%, he argued, a crash would not follow.

“We’ve had rates between 6% and 8% for three years now,” Mohtashami said. “Even when they went to 7.5% and 8%, you can have a price cut percentage increase, but you don’t have distressed sellers,” he said. “And that’s always been the key.”

Mortgage spreads offer cushion

Mortgage spreads – the difference between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield – remain a positive story for housing in 2026.

Historically, spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week, spreads closed at 2.11%.

Mohtashami has recently cited that if the worst mortgage spread levels of 2023 were in place today, mortgage rates would be 7.45% instead of 6.45%.

Asked whether the market could withstand a worst case scenario — where the Iran conflict worsens, mortgage spreads widen back to 2023 levels and the 10-year yield rises above 4.60%, Mohtashami pointed to historical precedent.

“Even if that happens, [you have to look at] the history of home prices,” he said. “Mortgage rates went to 18% in 1980. Home prices didn’t crash. Home prices rose faster in the late 70s than during COVID. We just don’t have history for big nominal home price crashes unless there’s distressed sellers, regardless of where mortgage rates are.

“The 1980s housing market really reminds me of this. Back then, home prices escalated out of control, but mortgage rates went to 18% and then home sales cracked. Even during the crash of that period, when mortgage rates went from eight to 13%, home prices didn’t fall.”

Market ‘atrophying’ rather than crashing

Housing inventory is rising seasonally but growth has slowed dramatically — from 33% year-over-year at the peak in 2025 to just 4.67% last week.

The price-cut percentage stands at 34.44% compared with 35% a year ago.

Mohtashami agreed that a more accurate description for the current market could be stagnation or “atrophy” — not crash — as real incomes slowly catch up to home prices.

“That’s kind of what’s happened the last two years with home price growth has slowing down,” he said. “Incomes have risen faster than home price growth, so housing affordability got a little bit better just on its own. It’s a very, very slow slog for improvement.”

The housing market “is not like the stock market” where prices can rise or fall 20% to 40% in minutes, he warned.

“This is a long, drawn-out process. The history of home prices going back to 1942 to 2026 is very slow and methodical on the downside,” Mohtashami said. “That’s why it’s really rare to even have home prices fall 1% nationally.

“You would need to think calamity, and our data lines will pick it up first. If we saw stress in housing, the new listings and the data will take off very aggressively, very fast.”