The housing markets that missed the pandemic boom are quietly outperforming

For much of the pandemic housing boom, markets across Florida, Texas and Arizona became symbols of housing demand.

Buyers chased affordability, remote work flexibility and lower taxes. Home prices surged. Inventory disappeared. Migration accelerated.

The prevailing assumption was that the markets attracting the most migration would also become the housing market’s biggest winners.

Four years later, HousingWire data suggests a more nuanced reality is emerging: The markets that benefited most from pandemic-era demand are often the same markets still working through the largest adjustment today.

Many of the markets that led the pandemic housing boom are now posting some of the weakest absorption rates in the country, while a group of markets that largely sat out the frenzy are showing stronger housing market fundamentals.

The pattern does not suggest the pandemic migration story was wrong. Population growth, job creation and business formation remain important advantages for many Sun Belt markets.

What the data does suggest is that markets experiencing the largest pandemic-era demand shocks may still be working through the aftereffects, while markets that avoided those extremes are proving more durable in today’s higher-rate environment.

The shift comes as the national housing market continues to show signs of resilience despite elevated mortgage rates. As HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami recently noted, “housing demand has remained firm even as rates have risen.“

The question for housing leaders is where that demand is still converting into transactions.

The boom and the aftermath

HousingWire compared a group of markets that became emblematic of the pandemic housing boom, including Austin, Phoenix, Tampa, Orlando and Miami, against a group of markets that experienced far less pandemic-driven housing activity, including Hartford, Buffalo, Syracuse, Cleveland and Detroit.

The performance gap is striking.

The pandemic boom group is currently posting a median absorption rate of 9.2%, compared with 19.4% for the markets that largely missed the pandemic boom.

Price reductions tell a similar story.

The median share of listings with price cuts in the boom markets stands at 45.3%, compared with 28.3% in the markets that largely missed the pandemic boom.

Inventory conditions are also markedly different.

The boom markets are carrying a median 2.8 months of inventory, more than double the 1.3 months seen in the markets that largely missed the pandemic boom.

Taken together, the data suggests many of the markets that experienced the strongest pandemic-era demand are still navigating a period of price discovery and market normalization.

The differences extend beyond a single metric. Pandemic boom markets are posting roughly half the absorption rate, significantly higher price-cut activity and more than double the inventory levels of their overlooked counterparts.

The markets still working through the adjustment

Several of the weaker-performing markets today were among the biggest winners of the pandemic housing boom.

Orlando, Miami and Atlanta are all posting absorption rates below 10%, underscoring how even some of the country’s most recognizable growth markets are experiencing slower transaction activity.

Austin is posting an absorption rate of 7.3%, with 47.7% of active listings carrying price cuts.

Phoenix, another pandemic-era standout, is posting a 9.3% absorption rate while 50.8% of listings have reduced prices.

These markets are not necessarily failing. Many continue to benefit from long-term demographic and economic tailwinds.

However, they appear to be working through the consequences of a period when demand accelerated faster than local housing markets could sustainably absorb.

Higher mortgage rates have exposed some of those imbalances.

Buyers remain active, but they are increasingly selective on price, condition and location.

As a result, sellers in many former boom markets have been forced to adjust expectations.

The advantage of missing the boom

On the other side of the spectrum are markets that attracted far less national attention during the pandemic.

Hartford is recording a 29.0% absorption rate with a 23.0% price-cut share.

Syracuse is posting a 22.0% absorption rate, while 23.2% of listings have reduced prices.

Buffalo is also showing strong transaction activity, with a 21.9% absorption rate and a 23.4% price-cut share.

Cleveland remains above 17% absorption, even with a higher price-cut share than some other overlooked markets.

These markets are not necessarily experiencing explosive growth. In many cases, they simply avoided the extreme appreciation, speculative activity and inventory distortions that characterized portions of the pandemic housing cycle.

That may be proving valuable in today’s higher-rate environment. Buyers and sellers appear closer to agreement on price, inventory remains relatively constrained and homes continue to move through the market at a healthier pace.

What housing leaders should watch

The most important takeaway is not that the Northeast or Midwest is suddenly replacing the Sun Belt as the country’s dominant growth engine.

Nor does the data suggest affordability no longer matters.

Instead, the findings highlight the lingering impact of pandemic-era market distortions.

Markets that experienced the largest demand surges often saw the largest increases in prices, investor activity and speculative behavior. Those same markets are now spending more time working through higher inventory, more frequent price reductions and slower transaction velocity as they continue adjusting to post-pandemic market conditions.

As Mohtashami has noted, housing data tends to get softer when mortgage rates move above 6.64%. But even within the same rate environment, HousingWire data shows dramatically different outcomes across local markets.

Markets that largely missed the pandemic boom may be proving more resilient because they never experienced the same degree of volatility.

For housing leaders, the lesson is straightforward.

The strongest housing markets today are not necessarily the fastest-growing or most talked about.

In many cases, they are the markets where supply, demand and pricing remained closest to equilibrium throughout the housing cycle.

As the housing market continues adjusting to a higher-rate environment, the lesson may be that resilience is often built long before it becomes visible. The markets proving most durable today are not necessarily the ones that experienced the biggest boom. In many cases, they’re the ones that never experienced the biggest distortions.

To track these trends and current pricing, demand and market signals at the national, metro and ZIP-code level, explore HousingWire Intelligence. For deeper context on rates, demand signals and the macro backdrop shaping housing activity, read HousingWire’s Housing Market Tracker weekly analysis.

HousingWire used HousingWire Data to source this story. This article is based on single-family residence data through May 29, 2026. For enterprise clients looking to license the same market data at a larger scale, visit HousingWire Data.