Real estate agents hope Kevin Warsh can calm roller coaster housing market

The Senate’s confirmation of Kevin Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve is already reshaping conversations across the housing industry — particularly among real estate agents watching mortgage rates, affordability and transaction volume.

Warsh is set to officially succeed Jerome Powell after a contentious confirmation process held against a backdrop of elevated inflation, geopolitical instability and a sluggish but stable labor market.

For agents, the biggest questions are straightforward. Will borrowing costs finally ease? Will potential buyers regain needed homeownership footing?

The answers, according to experts, are more complicated than a simple yes or no.

Rates may stabilize — but volatility remains

According to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, the average rate for a 30-year conforming loan stood at 6.66% on Thursday, slightly higher than the previous week as markets reacted to inflation concerns and conflict in Iran that pushed oil prices upward.

Anthony Lamacchia, broker-owner and CEO of Lamacchia Realty and Lamacchia Companies, told HousingWire that even under Warsh, geopolitical turmoil has muddied the water in regard to future rate cuts.

“We obviously hope he lowers rates, but the short-term, overnight Fed rate doesn’t exactly directly affect mortgage rates — it sort of has a peripheral effect,” he said. “The President has been yelling at Powell to lower rates. He hasn’t done it. I assume Warsh is going to lower rates, but now I think it’ll probably be delayed.

“That’s because the Iranian conflict has obviously created some inflation. Last month, the [Consumer Price Index] was high, and that’s aggravating, but what can we do?”

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami agreed that Warsh is widely expected to resist additional upward pressure on rates.

“He was hired to cut rates and not raise them,” he said. “So, Warsh will fight hard to not let the Fed guide rates higher. Regarding rates in the future, mortgage rates were trending below 6.25% before the [conflict in Iran] started. Once that ends and oil prices fall again, getting the rate back to the low 6% or high 5% range is in play again.”

Still, Mohtashami cautioned agents against expecting a return to ultra-low mortgage rates.

“It’s really hard to get mortgage rates below 5.75% with the Fed in a neutral stance and mortgage spreads above normal,” he said. “However, mortgage spreads being near normal again means it’s hard for rates to get above 7%.”

For agents, that could mean operating in a market defined less by dramatic swings and more by a narrower range of borrowing costs that consumers gradually adapt to.

“My 2026 range forecast was 5.75%-6.75%, and the high portion of this range needs inflation to pick up and the economy to stay firm,” said Mohtashami. “The low part of this range needs the growth rate of inflation to cool, or the economy to perform below its potential. This should be the range people should be mindful of.”

Century 21 President and CEO Mike Miedler cited agents’ role in calming client worries during times of crisis and uncertainty.

“We are clearly in a rate‑sensitive environment, and what changes first is consumer focus,” he said. “Buyers are paying very close attention to how broader economic signals may impact mortgage rates, even before anything changes in practice.

“Agents are spending more time helping clients separate headlines from reality — understanding what impacts buying power today versus what may or may not change down the road.”

‘There’s always buyers’

Warsh takes control of the Fed at a time of growing disagreement inside the central bank itself.

At the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting, policymakers voted to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis — repeatedly told Senators during his confirmation hearing that he would act independently from the White House despite pressure from President Donald Trump for lower rates.

“There are always buyers,” said Lamacchia. “Rates could be 15% and there’s always buyers. The problem is there’s less of them, and the same with sellers. This is a very unique scenario that we’ve been in over the last four years, where, historically, when rates are up, it affects buyers more than sellers.

“Well, the last four years, it’s affecting sellers as well, because sellers don’t want to give up their rate. They don’t want to give up the 2.83% rate and then trade it for a 6.78% rate.”

Miedler said meaningful precursors to near-term housing market change are often driven by buyer behavior — not housing policy.

“When buyers are getting pre‑approved earlier, asking more detailed questions about affordability, and sellers are pricing with greater realism, that tells us the market is adjusting,” he said. “Those fundamentals tend to drive transaction activity more reliably than any single economic headline.

“In a more stable rate environment, the focus shifts to preparation and education. Agents are guiding clients to understand their buying power clearly, get financially prepared early and be ready to act when the timing is right for them personally.” 

Any historical parallels for housing?

Fed leadership transitions have often carried major consequences for housing markets — especially during periods of economic strain.

In the late-1970s, former Fed Chair Paul Volcker aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation, pushing mortgage rates above 18% and severely slowing home sales. That housing downturn reshaped brokerage practices, with agents increasingly relying on creative financing and seller concessions to keep deals alive.

More recently, Ben Bernanke inherited the Fed during the collapse of the housing market in the mid- to late-2000s. His response — including historically low rates and large-scale bond purchases — eventually helped revive housing demand after the financial crisis.

Powell’s tenure also transformed the industry. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed slashed rates and purchased mortgage-backed securities, helping drive mortgage rates below 3% and fueling one of the most competitive housing markets in modern history.

Now agents are entering another transition period — one defined not by emergency stimulus, but by uncertainty over inflation persistence and the pace of future cuts.

Lamacchia said it’s difficult to pinpoint a historical parallel for today’s housing market circumstances.

“I don’t know of any time in the past that in a five-year period, rates went from historically low to a 40-year high,” he said. “It’s wild to me. With the last six years it’s been a roller coaster, a legitimate roller coaster. This is worse [than after the 2008 financial crisis). This housing slowdown is worse than ‘08 as far as total home sales, because there’s just not enough sellers.”

What agents should watch next

Miedler said agents sticking to the basics during difficult conversations with clients about affordability can go a long way.

“Our strongest agents are helping clients tune out the noise and focus on what they can control,” he said. “They’re grounding affordability conversations in facts — buying power, financial readiness and long‑term goals — rather than speculation. In a market where consumers are bombarded with information, that steady, informed guidance is what builds trust and helps clients move forward when they’re ready.”

Experts also advise agents pay closer attention to inflation reports, Treasury yields and energy prices — rather than Fed headlines alone.

“I think we have settled on a [new normal] in the last four years,” said Lamacchia. “But if rates come down, it’s going to be like rocket fuel. They were coming down. They came down a whole point in 2025. A year ago today, we were at 6.88. If they get back down closer to six, things will start taking off again, just like they were last fall and early this winter.

“I do think they will improve, but the President had better solve this Iranian crisis fast”

Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as chair is expected in June.

Markets currently anticipate little immediate movement on rates as inflation remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target, Reuters said.

For agents, the likely near-term status quo is a housing market still constrained by affordability challenges — but potentially less vulnerable to the sharp rate spikes that froze many buyers and sellers over the past two years.