Projection calls for largest Social Security COLA increase in 4 years
Social Security beneficiaries could see a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment in 2027, according to a projection Monday from the Senior Citizens League, an increase over this year’s 2.8% adjustment.
If the projection holds, average monthly Social Security benefits would increase by about $69.75, from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28, the organization said.
The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the official 2027 COLA Oct. 14. That adjustment is based on the average change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during July, August and September.
With the July CPI-W showing a 3.4% annual increase, the Senior Citizens League’s projection suggests inflation could rise modestly over the next two months.
“One of the biggest challenges this year has been the sharp swings in inflation,” Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, said in a statement. “It started at 2.2% in January, climbed to 4.4% in May, then fell to 3.5% in June. Fortunately, our model is designed not to overreact to these swings, keeping our COLA projections relatively steady.”
If the 3.6% estimate becomes official, it would be the largest COLA in four years. It’s also down marginally from a 3.9% estimate for 2027 put out by the Senior Citizens League in May.
The adjustment was 2.8% in 2026, 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2024. In 2023, beneficiaries received an 8.7% increase as inflation surged following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflation has generally been higher in the 2020s than in the previous decade. The COLA and CPI-W averaged about 1.4% annually from 2010 through 2019, compared with an average of 3.7% from 2020 through 2025, according to the Senior Citizens League.
Energy costs could affect the final adjustment. Oil prices were about 24% higher Aug. 6 than a year earlier, according to the report. Higher fuel costs can raise transportation and production expenses, which can eventually push consumer prices higher.
“Seniors don’t experience inflation as a percentage on a chart,” Benton said. “They experience it at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, in their insurance premiums and when they pay the rent.”
The group said the final COLA will depend on inflation readings for August and September, meaning the projection could change before the government announces the official figure.
“Frankly, it’s infuriating that seniors must wait for a COLA to catch up with prices that have already driven up their grocery bills, housing costs, healthcare expenses and insurance premiums,” Benton said. “A higher COLA is welcome, but seniors shouldn’t have to lose purchasing power year after year before Washington acknowledges what they’re experiencing.”
This article was generated using HousingWire Automation and reviewed by a HousingWire editor before publication.
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