Pending home sales fall 5.4% in June, NAR says

After rising on both a monthly and yearly basis in May, pending home sales were down in June, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). 

Nationwide, NAR’s Pending Home Sales index came in at a reading of 72.5 in June, down 5.4% month-over-month and 0.3% annually. 

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year NAR examined this data.

“The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers,” NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “It is worth emphasizing that it is closing activity, not contract signings, that generates economic impact. Pending contracts are only suggestive of upcoming closed deals and do not align perfectly, due to fallout rates and contract contingencies.”

Regionally, pending home sales were down month-over-month in all four regions, with the Midwest (73.8) posting the largest decline at 8.9%, followed by a decline of 4.7% in the West (54.9), 4.1% in the South (86.4) and 3.0% in the Northeast (65.6). On an annual basis, pending home sales were up in the Midwest (0.3%) and Northeast (2.2%), but down in the South (-0.9%) and West (-1.1%).

“With contract signings falling in all four major regions, the broad-based decline suggests the recent run-up in mortgage rates is finally catching up with buyers’ wallets,” Sam Williamson, First American’s senior economist, said in a statement. “Other leading indicators point in the same direction. Mortgage purchase applications, another forward-looking gauge, have softened in recent weeks after climbing for much of the spring, with the seasonally adjusted purchase index falling to about 157 in mid-July, its lowest since February. Weaker applications alongside fewer contract signings suggest buyers and sellers are settling back onto the sidelines.”

Among the 50 largest metro areas, Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC (+15.4%), Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA (+15.2%) and Kansas City, MO-KS (+14.4%) reported the largest annual pending home sale increases, according to NAR’s data. 

In examining Century 21’s data, brand president Mike Miedler said he sees very different market stories depending on where he looks. 

“According to our data, this market is splitting into three stories. Chicago has 75% fewer homes for sale than in 2019, so even modest demand runs into a genuine shortage there. Miami and San Francisco have flipped from falling prices to rising ones, likely riding the same wealth effect that’s letting some buyers shrug off higher rates. Seattle brings the number down, still the softest market we track, prices about 2% behind last year. Add those together and you get a flat headline that undersells what’s happening almost everywhere else,” Miedler said in a statement. “So I don’t read this as demand disappearing. I read it as three markets moving at three different speeds.”

HousingWire Data shows that there were 403,406 pending single family home sales as of July 10, 2026, up 4.1% compared to a year ago. For the week ending on July 10, there were 63,971 new pending single family home sales, up 4.6% annually. 

At the metro level, Springfield, MO had an additional 481 single family home sales pending compared to a year ago, as of July 10, followed by Montgomery, AL (+306 homes) and Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA (+277 homes).

According to Williamson, NAR’s data for June suggests that the housing market remains intact and is waiting for a catalyst. 

“The structural supports are in place,  an easing lock-in effect, a resilient labor market, and favorable demographics, but none is strong enough on its own to draw sidelined buyers back while financing costs hover near a one-year high,” he said. “Until rates ease enough to move the affordability math, the recovery is likely to keep progressing at a measured pace.”