NAR March existing home sales hit slowest pace since 2009

After rising in February, existing home sales slowed again in March, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). 

Existing home sales fell 3.6% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. Year-over-year this represents a 1.0% decline and the slowest pace of March home sales since 2009. 

According to NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun, lower consumer confidence and softer job growth are to blame for the decline in sales pace. 

As the pace of home sales slowed, inventory had the chance to accumulate, rising 3.0% from a month prior, finishing March with 1.36 million units for sale, representing a 4.1 months’ supply at the current sales pace. Compared to a year prior, inventory was up 2.3% in March.

“Inventory remains a major constraint on the market,” Yun said in a statement. “The inventory-to-sales ratio, or supply-to-demand ratio, is below historical norms. An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions and allow consumers to make purchase decisions without feeling rushed.”

Yun attributed the 1.4% annual increase in the median existing home sales price, which hit $408,800 in March, to the constrained inventory. This increase represents the 33rd consecutive month of annual price increases. 

While the pace of home sales slowed in March, the median time on market for properties declined month-over-month dropping from 47 days in February to 41 days in March. Annually, this is up 11 days from the 36 days recorded in March 2025. The share of first time homebuyers remained flat on a yearly basis, but declined two percentage points to 32% in March, while the share of all cash transactions also fell on a monthly basis, dropping from 31% a month ago to 27% in March, up from 26% in March 2025. 

Regionally, the sales pace for existing homes fell month-over-month in all four regions, with the Northeast (430,000 units) recording the largest decline at 8.5%, followed by the Midwest (-4.2% for a sales pace of 920,000 units ), the South (-3.1% for a sales pace of 1.86 million units) and the West (-1.3% for a sales pace of 770,000 units). On an annual basis, existing home sales were down in the Northeast (12.2%) and the Midwest (3.2%), but up in the South (2.2%) and the West (1.3%).

Additionally, while housing affordability improved on an annual basis in March, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rising nearly 10-points from a year prior, the index fell on a monthly basis, dropping to 117.5 in February to 113.7 in March. 

“The momentum of the spring market remains fragile,” Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement. “The ongoing conflict with Iran continues to create significant geopolitical uncertainty and is a primary driver of volatile mortgage rates and higher gas prices. A resolution to the conflict will help support a rebound in the housing market. However, if uncertainty, higher prices and mortgage rates persist, this could be a very slow spring.” 

With March’s data largely reflecting home sales that went under contract in January and February, prior to the conflict in Iran escalating, industry leaders expect to see further declines in the coming months. 

“Heading into 2026, the housing market had real momentum — mortgage rates were easing, affordability was improving and sidelined buyers were starting to reengage, keeping March activity relatively steady. Since then, the market has naturally become more deliberate, with some buyers and sellers pausing amid uncertainty while others move forward based on life-driven needs like job relocations, growing families and estate decisions,” Kamini Lane, the CEO and president of Coldwell Banker Realty, said in a statement.

‘The data reflects a market that’s becoming more thoughtful, not stalled. We’re seeing a shift from broad-based urgency to more intentional, life-driven decisions and for buyers and sellers ready to move, that often creates opportunity in moments when others hesitate and can be an advantage when conditions stabilize even more in the months ahead,” she adds.

In addition to the slower existing home sales pace, NAR also announced that it had revised its 2026 housing forecast downward, with the trade group now expecting existing home sales to rise 4.0% annually. The trade group also said it expects new home sales to now remain flat in 2026, down from its initial estimate of a 5.0% yearly gain. Despite these downward revisions, NAR said it still expects home sale prices to rise 4.0% in 2026. 

“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” said Yun. “Even with a more modest pace of sales growth, home prices continue to steadily increase due to minimal inventory growth.”